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2013年上半年,国内原料奶收购价格稳中略增,鲜奶零售价格高位震荡,奶粉零售价格总体平稳;乳品进口明显增加,出口明显下滑,奶粉进口继续向新西兰集中;国际市场乳品价格稳步提升,美国牛奶产量保持平稳,英国牛奶产量同比下降。预计未来一段时间内,国内奶业生产形势依然严峻,原料奶和乳制品价格保持高位运行的概率较大,近期国际市场主要乳品价格上涨趋势有所缓和,下半年下行风险较高。
In the first half of 2013, the purchase price of domestic raw milk increased steadily, the retail price of fresh milk fluctuated at a high level, the retail price of milk powder was generally stable, the import of dairy products increased significantly, the export volume decreased significantly, and the import of milk powder continued to converge in New Zealand; the dairy product price in the international market steadily increased. U.S. milk production remained stable, and UK milk production declined year-on-year. It is expected that in the near future, the domestic dairy production situation will remain severe, and the probability of raw milk and dairy products prices operating at high levels will be higher. Recently, the trend of rising prices of major dairy products in the international market has eased, and the downside risks in the second half have been relatively high.