德尔菲法(Delphi Method)是国外流行的一种科学决策方法,为美国兰德公司所首创,以古希腊神话传说中著名预言者阿波罗神庙所在地德尔菲命名。阿波罗预言之所以灵验,乃是因为经常派遣使者到各地去搜集聪明人的看法之故。 德尔菲法采用多轮匿名问卷调查的方式,反复征询专家的意见,以求得对所要研究问题比较深入一致的看法,作为领导决断的参考。由于它是一种“得”到人们心“怀”里看法的技术,所以台湾学者谢文全先生为了 Delphi Method (Delphi Method) is a popular scientific decision-making method abroad. It was first created by Rand Corporation of the United States and was named after Delphi, the famous prophet of ancient Greek mythology in the place of Apollo Temple. Apollo’s prophecy was so efficacious because he often sent messengers to various places to gather the views of wise men. The Delphi method used multiple rounds of anonymous questionnaire surveys and repeated consultations with experts to obtain a more in-depth and consistent view of the issues to be studied as a reference for leadership decisions. Since it is a technology that “gets” people’s perceptions in the mind, the Taiwan scholar, Mr. Xie Wenquan,