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运用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法,将影响中国出口贸易的因素归纳为3个因子:外部拉动与内部直接推动因子、金融因子和贸易条件因子;建立了出口贸易与其影响因素间的经济计量模型,实证分析发现贸易条件对出口贸易影响显著,而加工贸易进口和外商直接投资影响微弱,但金融因素的作用不容忽视。最后提出相应的调控措施,使得出口贸易按照政府的宏观经济目标顺利运行。
Using partial least squares (PLS) regression, the factors influencing China’s export trade are summarized into three factors: external pull and internal direct push factor, financial factor and trade condition factor; the econometric model is established between export trade and its influencing factors Model and empirical analysis, it is found that the terms of trade have a significant impact on export trade while the import of processing trade and foreign direct investment have a weak influence. However, the role of financial factors can not be ignored. Finally, the corresponding regulatory measures are put forward to make the export trade run smoothly according to the government’s macroeconomic goals.