对稻纹枯病１６ａ流行资料的统计分析表明：稻纹枯病的流行强度，主要受发生前的１月上旬雨量，１月下旬、４月下旬相对湿度或发生期间的６月下旬温雨系数，７月中旬降雨积数以及８月中旬上候温湿系数所决定。根据这些因子进行列联表法和回归模型法预测稻纹枯病流行强度，回测符合率高，试报效果好。 The statistical analysis of epidemiological data of rice sheath blight 16a showed that the prevalence of sheath blight of rice is mainly affected by rainfall in early January, late January, late April or the late June rainfall during the period of occurrence , Precipitation in mid-July and the temperature and humidity coefficient in mid-August. According to these factors, the method of contingency table and regression model were used to predict the prevalence of rice sheath blight.