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本文采用随机前沿超越对数生产函数模型,基于1988—2010年江苏省3个地区的数据,将水稻生育期分为5个生长阶段,在研究了气候变化对水稻总产量影响的基础上,进一步分析了各个气候因子对水稻总产量的贡献率。结果表明,不同生育期气候因子对水稻总产量的影响不同;淮北、江淮地区水稻总产量呈正向增长,苏南地区呈负向增长;不同地区、不同生育期的气候因子对各地区水稻产量的提高具有不同的贡献率,气候异常变动对水稻生产的影响是不容忽视的,应当高度重视未来气候变化对水稻生产的影响。
Based on the stochastic frontier logarithm production function model, based on the data of three regions of Jiangsu Province from 1988 to 2010, the growth period of rice was divided into five growth stages. Based on the study of the impact of climate change on total rice output, The contribution of each climatic factor to the total output of rice was analyzed. The results showed that the climatic factors at different growth stages had different effects on the total rice yield. The total rice output in Huaibei and Jianghuai areas increased in a positive direction, whereas in southern Jiangsu showed a negative growth. The climatic factors in different regions and different growing periods affected the rice yield To improve the contribution of different rates of change, the impact of climate anomalies on rice production can not be ignored, and the impact of future climate change on rice production should be highly valued.