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目的掌握安徽省池州市贵池区血吸虫病流行规律,为制定防治措施提供参考依据。方法收集1991-2011年贵池区血吸虫病疫情资料,采用描述性统计方法,统计病情、螺情等血吸虫病疫情指标。应用自回归求和移动平均模型(Autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)分析该地区血吸虫病发病率的变化趋势。结果不同血吸虫病流行类型地区的实际有螺面积差异有统计学意义(F=256.79,P<0.05),人群患病率随钉螺实际有螺面积的增加而升高(P<0.05),并且有4个波动高峰(1992、1995、2005、2008年)。时间序列分析显示ARIMA(1,1,1)是拟合最优模型,短期预测2012-2015年贵池区血吸虫病发病率分别为0.017%、0.007%、0.012%和0.010%。结论贵池区血吸虫病疫情得到了有效控制,但湖滩地区仍应加强监测,以防止疫情回升。
Objective To understand the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Guichi District, Chizhou City, Anhui Province, and to provide reference for making prevention and control measures. Methods The data of schistosomiasis in Guichi area from 1991 to 2011 were collected and the epidemic indexes of schistosomiasis were calculated by descriptive statistics. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to analyze the trend of schistosomiasis incidence in this area. Results The prevalence of snails in different schistosomiasis endemic areas was significantly different (F = 256.79, P <0.05). The prevalence of schistosomiasis prevalence increased with the actual snail area (P <0.05), and there was 4 peaks (1992, 1995, 2005, 2008). Time series analysis shows that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the best fit model. Short-term prediction of schistosomiasis incidence in Guichi area in 2012-2015 is 0.017%, 0.007%, 0.012% and 0.010%, respectively. Conclusion The epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in Guichi District has been effectively controlled, but monitoring should be strengthened in Hutan area so as to prevent the epidemic from rising.