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近年来,在房价一路高涨的背景下,我国政府频繁出台政策对房地产市场进行调控,但并未扭转房价过快上涨的趋势,反而陷入“越调越涨”的怪圈。本文通过分析房地产调控政策和房价的走势,从政府的公信力角度出发,运用时间不一致性和理性预期的理论,运用博弈论的方法建立模型,从理论上阐述了房地产调控政策低效率的原因。提出了诸如建立政府公信体系、推广房产税和建设保障性住房等政策建议,以通过提高政府公信力来影响房地产调控的效率。
In recent years, under the backdrop of soaring housing prices, our government frequently introduced policies to regulate and control the real estate market. However, it did not reverse the trend of too high housing prices but plunged into the vicious circle of more and more inflation. This article analyzes the real estate regulation and control policies and the trend of housing prices from the perspective of the credibility of the government, using the theory of time inconsistency and rational expectations, the use of game theory to establish a model to explain the reasons for the real estate regulation and control policies inefficient. Proposed such as the establishment of a government trust system, the promotion of real estate taxes and the construction of affordable housing and other policy recommendations to enhance the credibility of the government to affect the efficiency of real estate regulation and control.