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现有文献对于电力消费与经济增长相关关系的研究主要集中于探讨二者间的因果关系和长期均衡关系,本文从增长率的角度研究二者的短期波动,探讨为什么用电量与GDP的增长率会背离。受产业结构、产品结构、技术进步、制度改革和能源替代等多种因素的影响,单位产值用电量在各年度间会发生较大的变化,导致用电量增长率总是围绕GDP增长率上下波动。如果不能准确地把握能耗强度的变化趋势,运用电力消费弹性来预测未来的电力需求具有较大的风险。
The current literature on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth mainly focuses on the causal relationship between the two and long-term equilibrium relationship, this paper from the perspective of growth rate of short-term fluctuations between the two to explore why electricity consumption and GDP growth Rate will deviate. Affected by many factors, such as industrial structure, product structure, technological progress, system reform and energy substitution, the output value of electricity output per unit will change greatly during each year. As a result, the growth rate of electricity consumption will always center on the growth rate of GDP Fluctuations. If you can not accurately grasp the trend of changes in energy intensity, the use of electricity consumption elasticity to predict future electricity demand has a greater risk.