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首次依据1995-2005年中国19个省市17部门投入产出表及统计年鉴相关数据构造出中国可计算非线性动态投入产出模型,并用此模型定量研究了能源价格变化对行业投入要素替代及行业产出的影响.结果表明:能源价格的变化对行业要素投入替代有显著影响,且能源耗用型行业的要素替代弹性大大高于非能源耗用型的要素替代弹性;17个行业中有12个行业表现出技术变化率提升伴随能源耗用的增加;在能源价格指数上涨5%的情况下,有9个的行业产出不会下降,给出了能源价格上升的空间.对利用能源价格调整促进行业发展提出了相关措施及建议.
For the first time, based on the input-output tables of 17 departments in 19 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2005 and the data from the Statistical Yearbook, a computable nonlinear dynamic input-output model in China was constructed. The model was used to quantitatively study the impact of changes in energy prices on the substitution of industry input factors and Industry output.The results show that: the change of energy price has a significant impact on industry factor input substitution, and the element substitution elasticity of energy consumption industry is much higher than that of non-energy consumption element substitution elasticity; among 17 industries Twelve industries showed an increase in the rate of technological change accompanied by an increase in energy consumption; in the case of a 5% increase in the energy price index, output of nine industries will not decrease, giving room for an increase in energy prices. Price adjustment to promote the development of the industry put forward the relevant measures and recommendations.