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本文研究指出,地方政府债务扩张是地方政府、中央政府、银行这三类主体行为相互作用影响所共同导致的结果,地方政府高负债的主要原因包括中央政府隐性担保引发的地方政府道德风险、经济增长短期目标驱动下地方政府对基础设施投资的偏好、银行追求收益而忽略风险的信贷供给行为扭曲等。进一步,本文通过计量实证分析发现,基础设施投资比例越高,转移支付比例越高,银行对政府主导行业支持力度越高,地方政府债务的规模越高。实证研究结果验证了上述因素是地方政府债务扩张的重要原因。最后,本文对治理地方政府债务提供了政策建议。
This study points out that the expansion of local government debt is the result of the interaction of the three types of local government, central government and banks. The main reasons for the high debt of local governments include the local government moral hazard caused by the implicit guarantee of the central government, Short-term economic growth driven by local government preferences for infrastructure investment, banks pursue earnings and ignore the risk of credit supply distortions. Further, this econometric analysis shows that the higher the proportion of infrastructure investment, the higher the proportion of transfer payments, the higher the banks’ support for government-led industries and the higher the scale of local government debt. The empirical results verify that the above factors are the important reasons for the expansion of local government debt. Finally, this article provides some suggestions on how to govern the debts of local governments.