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综合现有不确定性分析方法的原理及特点,采用Wilks公式确定需要计算的最小次数,研究针对子通道程序不确定性的分析方法,并编写程序。运用该程序对8×8棒束的出口空泡份额实验的子通道计算进行了不确定性分析与研究,得到了每个子通道出口空泡份额的计算预测值,以及满足容忍限的不确定性上、下限。计算结果表明:边角子通道的计算不确定性较小,约为±5.5%;而水棒周围不规则形状的子通道的不确定性较大,约为±9%。堆芯热工水力问题中最关注的高空泡子通道的出口空泡份额,其不确定性为-5.5%~6%。
Based on the principle and characteristics of the existing uncertainty analysis methods, the Wilks’ formula is used to determine the minimum number of calculations and the analysis method for the uncertainty of the subchannel program is studied. By using this program, the uncertainty analysis and research on the subchannel calculation of the exit bubble fraction of 8 × 8 bundles have been carried out. The predicted value of the exit bubble volume per subchannel and the uncertainty of the tolerance limit Upper and lower limits. The calculation results show that the computational uncertainty of the corner subchannels is relatively small, which is about ± 5.5%. The uncertainty of the irregular shape subchannels around the water rods is about ± 9%. The uncertainty of the export bubble fraction of high-altitude bubble passage which is most concerned by the core thermal-hydraulic problem is -5.5% -6%.