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在阿尔卑斯山地区,水文循环对于气候变暖的反应异常敏感。2008年,瑞士有关当局基于综合性的新区域气候模型与先进的水文模拟技术,开展了气候变化对瑞士水资源和水力发电影响的定量评估工作,分析了气候变化对径流与特殊流态、对电站运行与发电量及对瑞士全国总发电量的影响。预测结果表明,瑞士未来发生大洪水的可能性会增加,泥沙淤积也会大大增加,两种因素的叠加作用将会对发电造成不利影响,但发电形势还是较为乐观。气候变化对水电的影响与电站的地理位置、流域情况和电站类型有关。研究结果对于实现电站运行管理的最优化具有一定的启示作用。
In the Alps, the hydrological cycle is exceptionally responsive to warming. In 2008, based on a comprehensive new regional climate model and advanced hydrological modeling techniques, the relevant Swiss authorities conducted a quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower in Switzerland, analyzed the impacts of climate change on runoff and special flow regimes, Power plant operation and power generation and its impact on total power generation in Switzerland. The forecast shows that the possibility of a big flood in Switzerland will increase and the siltation will also increase greatly. The superposition of the two factors will have an adverse impact on power generation, but the power generation situation is still more optimistic. The impact of climate change on hydropower is related to the geographical location of the power station, watershed conditions and the type of power station. The research results have certain enlightenment for the optimization of power plant operation and management.