近几年来,医疗费用急剧增长,引起了社会各方面的关注。今后几年医疗费用的状况及其发展趋势更是大家所关心的问题。迄今为止,有关这方面的国内文献很少。原因是多方面的,主要是影响医疗费用的因素很多,作用也很复杂。某些外部和环境因素乃至无法预料的偶发事件也常常对其产生影响,因而对医疗费用进行精确的预测是不可能的。不同年龄组居民的医疗服务利用及费用存在着很大差异;人口学因素,如人口数及年龄结构的改变在很大程度上影响了医疗费用的变动;近几年因人口老龄化而造成医疗费用不断增长更是一个不能忽视的重要方 In recent years, the rapid increase in medical expenses has aroused concern in all aspects of society. The situation of medical expenses in the next few years and its development trend are even more of a concern to everyone. So far, few domestic documents have been published in this area. There are many reasons for this, mainly because there are many factors affecting medical expenses and the role is very complicated. Certain external and environmental factors and even unpredictable incidents often affect them, so it is impossible to accurately predict medical expenses. There are significant differences in the use and costs of medical services among residents of different age groups; demographic factors such as changes in population and age structure have affected, to a great extent, the changes in medical costs; medical care has resulted from the aging of the population in recent years. The continuous increase in costs is an important factor that cannot be ignored