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2008年天然橡胶市场在金融危机下成为重灾区,虽然上半年天然橡胶价格跟随原油价格上涨24%,但下半年最大跌幅为65%,几乎回到2002年的价格水平。由于汽车业前景尚不明朗,加之国际油价在需求放缓的压力下持续走低,预计天然橡胶市场在2009年依旧不太平,暴跌之后将迎来熊市下半场,在金融危机没有结束的情况下,天然橡胶依旧表现出极强的金融属性,加上低迷的消费压制下,天然橡胶价格将进入艰难寻底的阶段。
Natural rubber market in 2008 became the hardest hit by the financial crisis. Although the price of natural rubber followed the rise of 24% in the first half of the year, the largest decline in the second half was 65%, almost back to the price level in 2002. Due to the uncertainties of the automotive industry and the continuous drop of international oil prices under the pressure of slowdown in demand, the natural rubber market is still not stable in 2009 and will bear the second half of a bear market after the plunge. In the absence of an end to the financial crisis, natural Rubber is still showing strong financial attributes, coupled with depressed consumer spending, the natural rubber prices will enter the difficult search of the bottom stage.