洪水预报模型是防汛系统的核心灵魂,传统的预报系统存在预报率低、参数设置较盲目、复杂的缺陷。在通信及传感器技术飞速发展的今天,大量水库已经建立起基于最新技术的水情自动测报系统,为基于实测数据而不关心水文机理的“黑箱模型”创造了条件。 Flood forecasting model is the core soul of flood control system. The traditional forecasting system has the defects of low forecasting rate and blind parameter setting. Today, with the rapid development of communications and sensor technologies, a large number of reservoirs have established an automatic hydroforming system based on the latest technologies and created the conditions for the “black box model” based on measured data without concern for hydrological mechanism.