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本文对国内外棉花现货和期货价格之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果显示,国际棉花期货价格波动会加剧国际棉花价格的波动,国际棉花价格和郑州棉花期货价格的波动会加剧中国棉花价格的波动。我国棉花价格波动会加剧国际棉花期货价格的失衡,但会缓解郑州棉花期货价格的波动。最后提出应促进我国现货市场和期货市场价格机制的融合,提高我国棉花进口定价权的对策建议。
This paper conducts an empirical study on the dynamic relationship between domestic and international cotton spot and futures prices. The results show that fluctuations in international cotton futures prices will aggravate the fluctuations in international cotton prices. The fluctuations in international cotton prices and in Zhengzhou cotton futures will exacerbate the fluctuations in China's cotton prices. China's cotton price volatility will exacerbate the international cotton futures price imbalance, but will ease the volatility of Zhengzhou cotton futures. Finally, it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to promote the integration of price mechanism in China's spot market and futures market and improve the pricing power of China's cotton import.