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基于1990、1994、2000、2005和2009年公路网数据和经因子分析得到的县域城市综合实力指数,采用扩展的潜力模型测度县域潜力指数,运用时空自相关方法探讨珠三角县域潜力的时空关联格局及其演变,并与空间关联格局对比及与交叉相关函数比较检验其准确性。结果表明:①珠三角县域潜力总体上具正时空关联性,但关联程度不高,1994-2005年缓慢加强而2005-2009年趋于减弱。大多县域潜力的局部时空关联特征相对稳定,且以正相关为主,但部分县市时空关联类型发生了明显转化。②县域潜力的局部时空关联类型分布差异及其变化明显,时空HH区分布于中部地带和东部的深圳——东莞地带,2000年后中部的时空HH区范围收缩至广——佛核心都市区;西部时空LL区连片分布格局相对稳定,中南部2005年开始出现新的时空LL区,东部时空LL区范围1994-2000年扩大而后逐步收缩,2009年零星分布于东部边缘;时空异质区变化较剧烈。③三大地带县域潜力的局部时空关联特征反差鲜明,东部与中部差异趋于缩小,而西部与中、东部的差异进一步扩大。④时空自相关方法能有效挖掘县域潜力的时空关联模式,比仅考虑空间效应的ESDA方法更能准确客观揭示县域潜力间的时空交互关系。
Based on the data of highway network in 1990, 1994, 2000, 2005 and 2009 and the county comprehensive strength index obtained by factor analysis, the extended potential model was used to measure the county potential index and the spatiotemporal correlation of the potential in the Pearl River Delta And its evolution, and compared with the pattern of spatial correlation and cross-correlation function to test its accuracy. The results show that: (1) The overall potential of the Pearl River Delta region has a positive temporal and spatial correlation, but the degree of correlation is not high. The potential of the Pearl River Delta region increased slowly from 1994 to 2005 and tended to weaken from 2005 to 2009. Most of the temporal and spatial correlations of county-level potential are relatively stable with positive correlations, but the temporal-spatial correlation types of some counties and cities have obviously changed. (2) The temporal and spatial distribution of county-level potential varies significantly and their changes are obvious. The space-time HH is located in the central area and the Shenzhen-Dongguan area in the east. After 2000, the scope of the HH area in time and space in the central part shrinks to the core metropolitan area of Guang- The spatiotemporal distribution pattern of LL space-time in western China was relatively stable. The new space-time LL region started to emerge in central and southern China in 2005. The LL region in eastern China expanded from 1994 to 2000 and then gradually contracted in 1994-2000. More intense. (3) The contrast of local temporal and spatial correlations of the county potentials in the three major regions shows a clear contrast. The differences between the eastern and central regions tend to decrease, while the differences between the west and the central and eastern regions further widen. Spatiotemporal autocorrelation can effectively tap the spatio-temporal pattern of county potential, which can more accurately and objectively reveal the spatio-temporal interaction of county potential than ESDA method, which only considers spatial effect.