在新一轮房地产宏观调控影响下,北京房价出现“稳中有降”。本文利用月度统计数据,通过分析北京房价与CPI的长期均衡关系,建立了包含协整关系的GARCH(1,2)族模型,进而研究北京房价的波动特性及其涨幅来源,并预测未来北京房价的变动趋势。最后针对宏观调控房价提出了政策建议。 Under the new round of macroeconomic regulation and control of real estate, Beijing’s housing prices appear “steady decline”. Based on the monthly statistical data and by analyzing the long-term equilibrium relationship between Beijing housing prices and CPI, this paper establishes a GARCH (1,2) family model with cointegration relationship, and then studies the volatility characteristics of Beijing housing prices and their sources of increase, and forecasts future Beijing housing prices The trend of change. Finally, the macro-control prices proposed policy recommendations.