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本文对环境规制引致劳动力再配置的主要路径及其可能产生的社会成本进行了理论梳理,利用中国工业企业数据,通过面板VAR模型估计了环境规制带来的劳动力再配置并分析了其宏观含义。研究结果表明:(1)环境规制引致的劳动力再配置反映为污染部门的就业萎缩和清洁部门的就业扩张,其宏观福利含义表现为潜在的失业风险和社会转换成本。(2)企业进入、退出和在位企业的就业变动是劳动力再配置的主要路径,在环境规制的约束下,企业进入引致的就业创造被显著抑制,在位企业的就业损失明显提升,被规制部门的潜在劳动力需求下降,宏观上存在着因解雇而产生的失业加剧风险。(3)环境规制导致高污染行业再配置劳动力的能力减弱,更多的劳动力再配置将在高、低污染行业间发生,宏观上更容易带来劳动力需求和供给的错配及产生结构性失业。因此,促进劳动力需求与供给的灵活匹配是降低环境规制社会成本,同时推动绿色经济转型所亟需考虑的。
In this paper, the main path that environmental regulation leads to the relocation of labor force and its possible social costs are theoretically combed. Using the data of Chinese industrial enterprises, the panel VAR model is used to estimate the redistribution of labor brought by environmental regulation and analyze its macro meaning. The results show that: (1) The redistribution of labor force caused by environmental regulation is reflected by the employment contraction in the pollution sector and the employment expansion in the clean sector. The macro-welfare meanings are as follows: potential unemployment risk and social conversion costs. (2) The employment change of enterprises entering, exiting and serving enterprises is the main path of labor relocation. Under the restriction of environmental regulations, the creation of employment caused by the entry of enterprises is significantly restrained. The employment loss of the incumbent enterprises is obviously increased and regulated The potential labor demand of the department is declining. At the macro level, there is a risk of rising unemployment due to dismissal. (3) As a result of environmental regulation, the ability of high-polluting industries to relocate their labor force has weakened. More labor relocation will take place between high and low-polluting industries. Macroeconomically, this may lead to mismatch of labor demand and supply and structural unemployment . Therefore, promoting flexible matching of labor demand and supply is an urgent consideration to reduce the social cost of environmental regulation and promote the green economy transformation.