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考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态。把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析。由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节点与水源点处于连通状态的近似频率计算来代替精确概率分析,为获得稳定的计算结果,对所用算例进行了5000次模拟。算例分析表明,基于图论方法和模糊关系矩阵法得到的管网连通可靠性结果基本相等。
Considering the random effect of earthquake effect and pipeline resistance, a probabilistic prediction model of buried pipeline unit is established to evaluate the seismic damage state of the pipeline. By simplifying the water supply pipe network system into a directed network diagram, the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation process is used to approximately reproduce the damage status of pipe sections in the pipe network. Then the pipe network is connected with the theory of graph theory and the fuzzy relation matrix method respectively Reliability analysis. Because the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is based on the approximate frequency calculation of each node in the pipe network and the water source point in place of the accurate probability analysis, in order to obtain a stable calculation result, 5000 simulations of the example are performed. The case study shows that the reliability of pipe network connectivity based on graph theory and fuzzy relation matrix method are basically equal.