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针对事故树分析法的局限性,在尾流事故树的基础上,建立贝叶斯网络(BN)。运用推理运算对BN进行定量分析,得出:空中交通密度太大、空中交通管制(ATC)间隔判断错误和短期冲突告警(STCA)被忽略是事故的关键致因。将针对致因提出的改进措施引入到BN中,评价相关措施的有效性。应用BN进行尾流事故的机理分析,能够以比逻辑门更好的形式表达变量间的不确定性关系,从而更加方便地找到导致事故发生的关键因素。
According to the limitation of fault tree analysis method, Bayesian network (BN) is established on the basis of Wake Fault Tree. Quantitative analysis of BN using inference operations shows that air traffic density is too high, air traffic control (ATC) interval misjudgment and short-term collision warning (STCA) are ignored are the key causes of the accident. The improvement measures proposed for the cause will be introduced into the BN to evaluate the effectiveness of the relevant measures. The application of BN to analyze the wake accident mechanism can express the uncertainty relationship among the variables in a better way than logic gates so as to find out more conveniently the key factors leading to the accidents.