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农业气象灾害风险评估与区划对农业防灾减灾对策的制定意义重大。以东北三省为研究区,利用日均温、水稻生长发育期、产量和面积数据对水稻冷害风险中的致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性及损失度三要素进行了多指标分析。结合熵值法与层次分析法综合计算指标权重,应用加权综合评价法构建了东北水稻冷害风险综合评估模型。结果表明,冷害风险综合评估指标与典型冷害年水稻单产平均减产率在0.01水平下极显著相关,冷害综合风险等级区划与历史任意冷害发生频率分布大体一致。因此,对冷害风险综合评估模型及区划所做的研究具有合理性,可为防灾减灾提供科学合理的依据。
Agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment and division of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation measures is of great significance. Taking the three northeastern provinces as the study area, the multi-index analysis was conducted on the three elements of risk of the hazard of cold damage, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the degree of loss of the disaster-tolerant rice using daily average temperature, growth and development of rice, yield and area data. Combined with entropy method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), index weight was calculated synthetically to evaluate the risk of cold damage in Northeast China. The results showed that the comprehensive assessment index of chilling injury risk was significantly correlated with the average reduction rate of rice yield in typical chilling injury stage at the level of 0.01. The frequency distribution of chilling injury integrated risk level division was consistent with that of any chilling injury history. Therefore, the research on the comprehensive assessment model and division of chilling injury risk is reasonable and can provide a scientific and reasonable basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.