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先前的研究主要集中在辖区内经济增长对主政官员晋升概率的影响。基于晋升激励的视角,本文利用1995-2012年省级主政官员职务变动的数据,考察了辖区内以碳排放绩效为表征的可持续发展能力是否影响地方官员政治晋升的概率。实证结果表明,辖区内碳排放绩效对省级主政官员晋升的概率有显著正向的影响。具体来说,省委书记晋升概率受辖区碳排放绩效的影响比省长更加敏感;并且碳排放绩效对地方官员晋升概率的正向影响在2004年之后更加显著。本文的发现是稳健的,并且有助于增进对地方官员治理的理解。
Previous studies have focused mainly on the impact of economic growth on the probability of promotion of government officials within the jurisdiction. Based on the perspective of promotion incentives, this paper uses the data of changes in the positions of provincial government officials from 1995 to 2012 to examine whether the ability of sustainable development, characterized by carbon emissions performance, affects the probability of political promotion of local officials. Empirical results show that the performance of carbon emissions within the jurisdiction of the provincial government officials have a significant positive impact on the promotion. Specifically, the promotion probability of provincial party committee secretary is more sensitive to the provincial carbon emissions performance than the provincial governor; and the positive impact of carbon emission performance on the promotion probability of local officials is even more remarkable after 2004. The findings of this article are robust and help to improve understanding of the governance of local officials.