现有研究未能考虑产品需求在生命周期中呈现的S型扩散特征。本文引入了新技术扩散领域的Bass模型,用来刻画新技术销售量在整个生命周期中的变化。在此基础上建立了新技术采用最优时机的决策模型,并对结果进行了讨论。应用数值算例说明了模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果发现新技术采用的最优时机应该在达到市场最大潜力的50%之前,且在需求率达到最大之前。 Existing research fails to take into account the S-type diffusion characteristics of product requirements over their life-cycle. This article introduces the Bass model for the diffusion of new technologies to characterize the changes in sales of new technologies throughout their life cycle. On this basis, a decision model of adopting the optimal timing for new technology is established, and the results are discussed. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. The study found that the optimal time to adopt a new technology should be before it reaches 50% of the market’s maximum potential and before the demand rate reaches its maximum.