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采用青南牧区9个地面气象站1961―2013年逐日气温资料,通过线性回归、双线性插值、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等统计方法,分析了牧草生长季、青草期、牲畜抓膘期和掉膘期等牧业生产关键期的时空变化特征,预估了未来在典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)情景下2015―2035年牧业生产关键期变化趋势。结果表明,1)1961―2013年,青南牧区牧草生长季、青草期以及牲畜抓膘期开始日提早、结束日推迟,持续日数显著延长,延长速率分别为2.5、4.8、4.6 d·10 a-1,而牲畜掉膘期呈现出相反的变化趋势,平均缩短4.0 d·10 a-1。2)近53年,青南牧区牧草生长季、青草期、牲畜抓膘期及牲畜掉膘期4个指标均发生了气候突变,突变时间在1997/1998年;其中牧草青草期存在8~12、16~18年的周期,牲畜抓膘期及掉膘期4~6、8~12、16~18年的振荡明显。3)在RCPs情景下,未来20年青南牧区牧草生长季、青草期、牲畜抓膘期平均分别延长11.5~21.5 d,牲畜掉膘期缩短15.7~18.1 d,将十分有利于青南牧区的牧业生产。
Based on the daily temperature data of nine ground stations in Qingnan pasturing area from 1961 to 2013, the author analyzed the growth season, grass stage, catch time of livestock and grassland by using linear regression, bilinear interpolation, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The spatio-temporal variations of the critical period of animal husbandry production such as drop-off period are estimated to predict the future trend of the key period of 2015-2035 livestock production under future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The results showed that: 1) In 1961-2013, the forage growing season, the grass growing season and the starting date of livestock grazing in Qingnan pasturing area were earlier, the ending date was postponed and the duration of the forage lasted significantly longer, with the extending rates of 2.5, 4.8 and 4.6 d · 10 a- 1, while the turning-off period of livestock showed the opposite trend, shortening 4.0 d · 10 a-1.2 on average. In the past 53 years, the pasture growth season, grass stage, livestock grazing period and livestock fall period in Qingnan Pasturing Area were 4 The climate change occurred in all the indicators, with the mutation time being between 1997 and 1998. The grazing period of grazing grass was between 8 and 12 years and from 16 to 18 years. The grazing period and off-season of livestock were 4 ~ 6, 8 ~ 12 and 16 ~ 18 The oscillation of year is obvious. 3) Under the RCPs scenario, pasture growth season, grazing period and livestock grazing period in the past 20 years in Qingnan pastoral area have been extended by 11.5-21.5 days on average and 15.7-18.1 days in rural areas respectively, which will be very beneficial to animal husbandry in QNR produce.