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截止1995年末,经过三年的历程,一多学科项目组对Weyburn区块二氧化碳注提高采收率项目的商业时机进行了评估,并且对于这种规模的项目,都要综合分析项目的时机和风险,并作出明确的定义和评价。为了确定整个项目的时机和风险,应用Monte Carlo模拟方法将与项目有关的技术和非技术因素结合起来对项目进行了风险评估。进行风险评估是为了达到项目配置最佳化,并使项目组集中关注关键问题,找到规避项目内在风险的途径。项目预期回报率的不确定主要因素有商品价格、油藏动态、成本和财政问题。本文主要阐述了截至1995年底完成的风险评估过程、方案开发计划以及对项目的综合研究和分析。
As of the end of 1995, after a three-year course, a multidisciplinary team evaluated the business timing of the Weyburn block carbon dioxide injection rate recovery project and, for projects of this size, analyzed the timing and risks of the project , And make a clear definition and evaluation. To determine the timing and risk of the project, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to project-related technical and non-technical factors to assess the project’s risk. The purpose of risk assessment is to optimize project allocation and focus the project team on key issues and find ways to avoid the inherent risks of the project. The main factors of the project’s expected rate of return uncertainty are commodity prices, reservoir dynamics, costs and financial issues. This article focuses on the risk assessment process completed by the end of 1995, the program development plan, and a comprehensive study and analysis of the project.