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本文以上海经济体制改革和宏观经济运行为基点,对目前人们极为关注的经济波动与经济周期、市场体系与竞争环境、分配倾向与支付行为进行了定量研究,探索了我国经济波动的周期性,指出在短缺经济的国度里,高速增长是经济的大忌,上海经济的最佳增长率为7%左右。文章对市场体系的形成和分配政策的改革进行新的思考,认为货物市场的串联作用、微观组织对市场信号的迟钝反映、地方割据的重新出现以及地方政府支付行为的轻型化、企业支付行为的短期化和个人支付行为的早熟化都给改革带来沉重的压力。作者提出鲜明观点:用谨慎的财政和货币政策来保证新旧体制的转换,分配政策的成功点在于收入以效率为弹性值;经济决策多层次化应该向中央和企业集团决策层次两级化转移。
Based on the reform of Shanghai’s economic system and macroeconomic operation, this paper conducts a quantitative research on the current economic fluctuations, economic cycle, market system and competitive environment, distribution tendency and payment behavior that people are most concerned about. It explores the cyclical, He pointed out that in a shortage economy, rapid growth is a taboo for the economy. The best growth rate for the Shanghai economy is about 7%. This article makes a new consideration of the formation of the market system and the reform of the distribution policy. It concludes that the series effect of the goods market, the slow reflection of the market signal by the micro organization, the reappearance of the local separatism, the light of the local government payment behavior and the payment behavior of enterprises Short-term and precocious personal payments all bring heavy pressure on the reform. The author puts forward a clear view: the cautious fiscal and monetary policy can guarantee the transformation of old and new systems. The success of the distribution policy lies in the efficiency of the income as the elasticity value. The multi-level economic decision-making should be shifted horizontally to the decision-making level of the central government and enterprise groups.