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本文试图从理论分析和经验研究两方面,对技术进步与中国经济可持续发展之间的关系进行探讨。我们分别在扩展的索罗模型和内生增长模型中引入不可再生资源约束,证明技术进步是实现一国经济长期持续增长的关键;在经验研究方面,我们认为,基于索罗余值法的测算方法,不能直接简单地用于发展中国家或地区的技术进步测度,本文则发展了一个基于开放条件下国际技术溢出效应的修正的索罗测度法。结果表明:我国技术进步水平在很大程度上取决于国际技术溢出效应,今后应进一步扩大开放、深化结构调整,实施有效技术进步战略,加快转变增长方式。
This article attempts to discuss the relationship between technological progress and the sustainable development of China’s economy from the theoretical analysis and empirical research. We introduce non-renewable resource constraints into the extended Solow model and endogenous growth model, respectively, and prove that technological progress is the key to achieving long-term sustained economic growth in a country. In empirical research, we believe that the calculation based on the Solow residual method Method, which can not be simply used to measure the progress of technology in developing countries or regions. This paper develops a modified Solow-measure method based on the international technology spillover effects under open conditions. The results show that the level of technological progress in our country depends to a large extent on the international technology spillover effect. In the future, we should further expand opening up, deepen structural adjustment, implement effective technological progress strategies and accelerate the transformation of growth modes.