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本文基于省级面板数据,通过构建静态和动态面板数据模型,对我国能源效率变动的影响因素进行了深入分析,并通过样本内拟合标准和样本外预测标准进行模型选择,以确定最优的计量模型,进而对“十二五”期间我国的提高能源效率的目标进行了估计。研究结果表明,人均收入水平、产业结构、城市化水平、政府科研支出、技术进步、能源价格以及资本调整速度都对我国的能源使用效率有重要影响。模拟结果表明,在一切照旧情景下,“十二五”期间我国的节能潜力也可达到5%左右。而在政府制定适当的节能政策的情况下,“十二五”期间的节能潜力可以达到14%至17%左右,但是更高的节能目标不容易实现。
Based on the provincial panel data, through the construction of static and dynamic panel data model, the influencing factors of energy efficiency change in China are analyzed in depth, and the model selection is made through fitting sample in-sample standard and out-sample prediction standard to determine the optimal Econometric model, and then to “Twelve-Five ” during our country to improve energy efficiency goals were estimated. The results show that the level of per capita income, industrial structure, urbanization level, government expenditure on science and technology, technological progress, energy prices and the speed of capital adjustment have a significant impact on China’s energy efficiency. The simulation results show that under all usual scenarios, the potential for energy saving in China during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period can reach about 5%. In the case of the government formulating an appropriate energy-saving policy, the potential for saving energy during the “12th Five-Year Plan” can reach 14% to 17%, but higher energy-saving targets are not easy to achieve.