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为克服以往假设河川径流系列平稳所造成的“伪回归”问题,根据协整分析理论,对渭河上下游水文站1956～1989年的天然河川径流系列进行协整性检验,基于误差修正模型,建立了渭河上下游径流序列预测模型。检验结果表明,在5%显著性水平下,渭河林家村水文站与咸阳水文站天然径流系列存在协整关系,且协整向量为(1,-0.880 03);利用渭河上游林家村水文站的天然河川径流系列,对1990～2000年下游咸阳水文站的天然河川径流进行预测,除1995年径流预测模拟结果相对误差较大外,其余年份误差绝对值均在20%以内。可见将协整分析应用于河川径流预测,可真实反映河川径流时间系列演变趋势,揭示河川径流上下游关系变化规律,效果良好,有利于河川径流预报水平的提高。
In order to overcome the problem of “pseudo-regression ” caused by the assumption of smooth river runoff series in the past, according to the co-integration analysis theory, the co-integration test of the natural river runoff series from 1956 to 1989 in the upstream and downstream of Weihe River was carried out. Based on the error correction model , Established the Weihe River upstream and downstream runoff sequence prediction model. The test results show that there is cointegration relationship between Linjiacun Hydrologic Station of Weihe River and natural runoff series of Xianyang Hydrological Station at the level of 5% significance, and the co-integration vector is (1, -0.880 03). Using the Linjiacun Hydrologic Station on the upper Weihe River The natural river runoff series predicts the natural river runoff at Xianyang Hydrological Station in the downstream from 1990 to 2000. Except for the relatively large error in runoff prediction simulation results in 1995, the absolute values of other years’ errors are within 20%. It can be seen that the application of cointegration analysis to runoff forecasting can truly reflect the evolution trend of runoff time of the runoff and reveal the regularity of the relationship between the upstream and downstream of runoff. The result is good and conducive to the improvement of runoff forecasting.