非常规情况下空管运行风险评估是一个复杂的多因素综合评价过程,传统的评估方法难以处理其随机性和模糊性。以非常规为研究背景,从“人、机、环、管”四方面构建了非常规情况空管运行风险评估体系。在模糊层次分析法的基础上,结合云模型,建立了风险评估模型,并就迫降对模型进行仿真验算,仿真结果表明,云模型作为空管运行风险评估模型可靠科学。 Unconventional air traffic control risk assessment is a complex multi-factor comprehensive evaluation process, the traditional evaluation method is difficult to handle its randomness and ambiguity. Based on the unconventional research background, an unconventional air traffic control risk assessment system was constructed from four aspects: people, machine, ring and pipe. Based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the cloud model, a risk assessment model is established and the model is validated for the forced landing. The simulation results show that the cloud model is reliable and scientific as the assessment model of the ATC risk management.