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本文在对1986~2012年中国各省份农业全要素生产率及农业科技存量进行估算的基础上,探讨了农业全要素生产率增长与农业科技存量的时间演变,并利用FGLS方法对实证模型进行估计,进而系统考察了气候变化及农业科技存量对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。研究结果表明:中国农业全要素生产率呈现明显的波动性增长趋势,主要靠农业技术进步驱动,而农业技术效率起着阻碍作用;新世纪以来农业科研投入增速明显加快,表现出明显的空间地域差异,并且该差异呈扩大趋势;农业科研投入对农业全要素生产率增长的促进作用十分显著,而年降水量对农业全要素生产率增长的影响并不显著。从空间区域来看,华东地区和西南地区气温升高对农业全要素生产率增长具有负向影响,而东北、华北、西北和华南4个地区气温升高能够提高农业全要素生产率。除华南地区外,华东、华北、西北、西南和东北5个地区降水密度增加对农业全要素生产率增长表现出显著的负向影响。
Based on the estimation of agricultural total factor productivity and agricultural science and technology stock in each province of China from 1986 to 2012, this paper discusses the time evolution of agricultural total factor productivity and the stock of agricultural science and technology, and uses the FGLS method to estimate the empirical model. The system examines the impact of climate change and the stock of agricultural science and technology on agricultural TFP growth. The results show that the total factor productivity of agriculture in China shows an obvious trend of fluctuating growth mainly driven by the progress of agricultural technology while the efficiency of agricultural technology plays an obstructing role. Since the beginning of the new century, the investment in agricultural research has accelerated markedly, showing obvious spatial and spatial distribution The difference is widened. The contribution of agricultural research investment to the growth of agricultural total factor productivity is very significant. However, the effect of annual precipitation on the growth of agricultural total factor productivity is not significant. From the perspective of spatial region, the temperature increase in East China and Southwest China has a negative impact on the growth of agricultural total factor productivity, while the increase of agricultural total factor productivity in the four regions of Northeast, North China, Northwest and South China. Except for southern China, the increase of precipitation density in east China, north China, northwest, southwest and northeast China showed a significant negative impact on the growth of agricultural total factor productivity.