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本文通过构建交互项面板固定效应模型并且使用系统广义矩估计的估计方法,实证考察了自1978年以来我国经济波动变化程度与财政分权之间的关系。研究发现,财政自主权增加会使地方财政支出对本地区经济波动平抑作用转变为加剧作用,估算其临界值为0.5~0.6之间。本文认为,应当更多地将减少经济波动而非单纯拉动增长纳入地方政府考察目标,加强对地方政府支出约束,有利于在新的公共财政体制下实现合理分权并且维持经济平稳运行。
In this paper, by constructing the fixed effects model of interactive item panel and using the estimation method of generalized moment estimation of system, the paper empirically examines the relationship between the degree of economic fluctuation and the fiscal decentralization in China since 1978. The study finds that the increase of fiscal autonomy will make the local fiscal expenditure play an aggravating role in stabilizing the economic fluctuations in the region, and its critical value is estimated to be between 0.5 and 0.6. This paper argues that we should reduce economic fluctuations rather than simply pull growth into the objectives of local government inspection, strengthen the constraints on local government spending, help to achieve decentralization under the new public finance system and maintain the stable operation of the economy.