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本文通过DSGE模型,模拟了我国利率市场化完成初期货币政策的利率传导效应。结论显示:当利率稳态水平提高后,面对1单位货币冲击时,产出和利率的脉冲反应程度较之前更大,表明在利率市场化初步完成之后,货币政策的传导效率有了一定程度的提高;但面对1单位技术冲击时,各变量的反应程度没有明显的差异,表明在利率市场化初步完成之际,来自实体经济冲击的影响还没有通过利率传导机制充分得以体现,也正说明我国利率的传导机制尚不畅通,利率的真正市场化还需要继续推进。
In this paper, we use DSGE model to simulate the effect of the interest rate of monetary policy in the initial stage of the marketization of interest rate in our country. The conclusion shows that when the steady-state interest rate rises, the impulse response of output and interest rate is greater than that before when the impact of 1-unit monetary shock is reached. This shows that the monetary policy has a certain degree of conduction efficiency after the initial marketization of interest rate However, there was no obvious difference in the response of each variable in the face of a technical impact of 1 unit, indicating that the impact of the real economy shock has not been adequately reflected by the interest rate transmission mechanism even when the marketization of interest rates is initially completed. It shows that the conduction mechanism of interest rate in our country is not yet smooth and the real marketization of interest rate still needs to be continued.