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2012年“营改增”政策从上海开始推进,交通运输业作为首批试点行业被纳入试点范围。本文基于试点地区30家交通运输业上市公司财务数据建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法实证分析了交通运输业营改增政策对企业税负水平的冲击及营改增前后税负变动情况对企业经济效益的影响程度、方向及持续性,并根据研究结论为相关决策主体提供建议。研究结果表明:税收冲击对企业经营绩效的提升具有有限的正向影响,这种影响在短期呈波动态势,长期稳定于固定数值。因此借力营改增的减税政策,合理调整企业经营战略能有效提高企业竞争实力。
In 2012, the policy of “Changing Business by Camp” started from Shanghai and the transportation industry was included in the pilot area as the first pilot industry. In this paper, based on the financial data of 30 listed companies in the pilot area, a VAR model is established. The impulse response function and variance decomposition method are used to empirically analyze the impact of the VAT reform on tax burden and the change of tax burden before and after the VAT reform The impact of the situation on the economic benefits of the enterprise, the direction and continuity, and provide suggestions to the relevant decision-making body based on the conclusions of the study. The results show that the tax impact has a limited positive impact on the improvement of business performance, which is fluctuating in the short term and stable to a fixed value in the long run. Therefore, by leveraging the tax reduction policy of increasing business camps and rationalizing the business strategies of enterprises, the competitiveness of enterprises can be effectively enhanced.