多年来对河流径流量进行预报,一直是水文工作者追求的目标之一,但由于全国各地水汽来源不同,河流特性千差万别,因而用一套通用的预报方案不能够准确、及时地预报,以达到防洪抗旱的能力。介绍了用频谱分析进行枯水径流分析和预报的基本方法,并用该方法对岩溶地区南明河流域径流进行预报分析和建模。模拟预报结果表明,该流域径流量存在3个显著枯水周期(2,4和9 a左右),预报结果可为南明河流域经济发展提供依据。 Forecasting river runoff over the years has been one of the goals pursued by hydrologists, but due to the different sources of water vapor across the country and the varying nature of the river, a common set of forecasts can not be accurately and timely predicted to reach Flood control and drought resistance. The basic method of analyzing and forecasting the runoff by spectrum analysis is introduced. The runoff forecasting and modeling of the Nanminghe River Basin in karst area are also carried out by this method. The simulation results show that there are three significant low-water cycle (about 2, 4 and 9 years) of runoff in the basin, and the prediction results can provide the basis for the economic development of Nanming River Basin.