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本文从三个层面分析宏观经济不确定性对银行个人住房贷款供给行为的影响,研究发现,宏观经济不确定性不仅影响银行资产组合和风险资产组合中个人住房贷款的供给行为,而且显著影响银行个人住房贷款增长率。当宏观经济不确定性上升时,银行个人住房贷款/资产、个人住房贷款/总贷款横截面分布的方差都显著变小,个人住房贷款增长率显著增加。上述结论表明,宏观经济不确定性上升会导致银行个人住房贷款供给行为出现扭曲,表现出显著的羊群效应,结果是个人住房贷款增长率显著上升,信贷资源过度集中于个人住房贷款。
This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the supply behavior of individual housing loans from three levels. The study finds that macroeconomic uncertainty not only affects the supply behavior of individual housing loans in bank assets portfolio and risk asset portfolio, but also significantly affects banks Personal housing loan growth rate. As the macroeconomic uncertainties rise, the variance in the cross-sectional distribution of individual housing loans / assets, individual housing loans / total loans has significantly decreased, and the growth rate of individual housing loans has significantly increased. The above conclusion shows that the rise of macroeconomic uncertainty will lead to distortions in the supply behavior of individual housing loans of banks and a significant herding effect. As a result, the growth rate of personal housing loans has risen markedly and credit resources have been excessively concentrated in individual housing loans.