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太阳质子事件(SPE,Solar Proton Events)是干扰日地空间最主要的源,大规模质子事件会影响在轨空间站实验设备的可靠性,有时甚至会威胁空间站的安全运行.提出一种基于灰色GM(1,1)和区间估计太阳质子事件预测方法;首先对1976—2010年SPE通量水平数据进行预处理,分别建立以发生时间为序列的一般SPE通量序列与极端SPE通量序列;之后将灰色GM(1,1)与区间估计相结合建立预测方法,融合反映一般SPE通量水平随周期性波动的活跃性调节系数,建立SPE通量水平长期预测模型;然后叠加不同SPE类型所得结果合成预测年份的SPE通量水平,给出未来一年或几年间SPE通量水平的变化范围;最后选取1976—2010年太阳质子事件年均值数据,分多批次预测1996—1998年和1999—2001年等SPE通量均值区间,结果表明各年实际发生SPE的通量均值均位于预测区间内,并且多年预测区间偏差最大值小于26%,实验结果还表明单次预测时长以2~3年为宜.
The Solar Proton Events (SPE) is the most important source of interference with the space-day space, and the large-scale proton event will affect the reliability of the experimental equipment in the orbiting space station, sometimes threatening the safe operation of the space station. (1, 1) and interval estimation solar proton event prediction method. Firstly, SPE flux data from 1976 to 2010 were preprocessed to establish the general SPE flux and the extreme SPE flux respectively, The gray GM (1,1) was combined with the interval estimation to establish a predictive method, and the long-term predictive model of SPE flux level was established by incorporating the activity adjustment coefficients that reflect the general SPE flux level with the periodic fluctuations. Then the results of different SPE types The SPE fluxes of the predicted years were combined to give the ranges of SPE fluxes in the next year or years. Finally, the annual average data of solar proton events from 1976 to 2010 were selected to predict the average fluxes of SPEs in 1996-1998 and 1999- 2001 and other SPE flux mean range, the results show that the annual average flux of SPE are located in the predicted range, and the maximum range of years predicted interval less than 26%, the experiment Results also indicate length to 2 to 3 years is appropriate when a single prediction.