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本文基于多国历史统计数据,在增长核算框架下,对中国经济增长减速的各因素进行了分析,得出如下结论:(1)在经济追赶国家向发达经济增长阶段演变过程中,劳动年龄人口增长率下降、资本产出比和消费率变化引发的资本增长率下降和资本产出弹性下降,共同决定了结构性减速的必然趋势。(2)投资增长下降、人口结构转型和要素弹性逆转,对中国构成三重结构性冲击,导致未来增长减速。如果全要素生产率不能得到切实提高,中国未来经济的可持续增长前景堪忧。(3)中国工业化时期的高速增长是由投资、劳动力等要素规模扩张维持的,经济投入产出效率低下,效率问题是未来增长模式转型的重中之重。
Based on multinational historical statistics, this paper analyzes the various factors that slow down China’s economic growth under the framework of growth accounting and draws the following conclusions: (1) In the process of economic catching-up countries’ evolution to advanced economy, the working-age population growth Decline in rates of capital output and consumption rate changes caused by capital growth and capital output elasticity of decline, jointly determine the structural trend of the inevitable trend. (2) Decline in investment growth, demographic transition and elemental resilience have caused a triple structural impact on China, resulting in a slowdown in future growth. If the total factor productivity can not be effectively improved, the prospects for China’s future economic growth will be worrisome. (3) The rapid growth in China’s industrialization period was sustained by such factors as investment and labor force expansion. Economic input and output were inefficient and efficiency was the top priority in the transformation of the future growth model.