人们普遍认为,基于简单模型的均衡框架,例如无摩擦世界中的代表者模型和双边谈判模型,可以为微观、宏观、金融和制度经济学提供一个逻辑自洽的分析框架。而当非线性和社会互动造成的内生不稳定性和不确定性涌现时,市场自稳定和制度趋同的均衡信念土崩瓦解。经济学和计量经济学中的均衡幻象,用在数学建模方面简单漂亮,但用于政策决策却后患无穷。大家熟知的均衡幻象模型包括弗里希的噪声驱动经济周期模型,Lucas的宏观波动的微观基础模型,和交易费用为零的科斯世界。这些模型不但违反了物理学的基本定律,而且缺乏史实方面的经验证据。他们的根本问题是采用线性哈密顿形式经济学的优化理论,它的前提是没有历史(不可逆性)和能量损耗的保守体系,它必然要求在经济交往中的对称信息,这对生命系统是不可能的。经济体在本质上是一个耗散系统,其特点包括对称破缺、信息流、时间箭头、和路径(历史)依赖。多体问题在数学处理上与单体问题和二体问题有着本质的不同。我们基于计算机的实证检验,和考察股市危机和转型萧条那样的自然实验,都清楚显示均衡分析的严重局限和演化动态的结构变化。复杂系统的新科学为分析非线性动力学和非平稳时间序列提供了新工具。均衡经济学现有的重大疑难,例如持续波动,突发性危机,市场韧性,社会运动,和组织多样性等尚未解决的难题,可以用非线性动力学模型更好地理解。就像爱因斯坦对物理学进行了范式革命一样,演化视角提供了一个更一般的理论框架,而传统的均衡模型只是其中的特例。因为均衡图景只是复杂现象的一种近似。就如放电影一样,人们对历史潮流的动态观察,可以简化为一系列短时间窗口下看到的移动图景。 It is generally accepted that an equilibrium framework based on simple models, such as the model of agents in a frictionless world and bilateral negotiation models, can provide a logical, self-consistent analytical framework for micro, macro, financial and institutional economics. When the endogenous instabilities and uncertainties resulting from non-linearities and social interactions emerge, the equilibrium belief in market self-stability and system convergence has collapsed. Equilibrium phantoms in economics and econometrics are simple and beautiful in mathematical modeling, but useless for policy decisions are troubling. Well-known equilibrium phantoms include Frisch’s noise-driven economic cycle model, the micro-base model of Lucas’s macro-volatility, and the Kos world with zero transaction costs. These models not only violate the basic laws of physics, but also lack empirical evidence in the field of history. Their fundamental problem is the optimization theory of linear Hamiltonian formal economics, which assumes that there is no conservative system of history (irreversibility) and energy depletion, which necessarily requires symmetrical information in economic interactions, which is not true for life systems possible. An economy is essentially a dissipative system characterized by symmetric breaking, information flow, time arrows, and path (historical) dependencies. The multi-body problem is essentially different from the single problem and the two-body problem in mathematical processing. Our computer-based empirical tests, as well as natural experiments like examining stock market crises and transitional depressions, clearly demonstrate the severe limitations of equilibrium analysis and structural changes in evolutionary dynamics. The new science of complex systems offers new tools for analyzing nonlinear dynamics and non-stationary time series. Existing major challenges in equilibrium economics, such as the unresolved challenges of persistent volatility, sudden crises, market resilience, social movements, and organizational diversity, can be better understood using nonlinear dynamics models. Just as Einstein conducted a paradigmatic revolution in physics, evolutionary perspectives provide a more general theoretical framework, and traditional equilibrium models are but one exception. Because the equilibrium picture is only an approximation of the complex phenomenon. Just like putting a movie, people’s dynamic observation of the historical trend can be simplified into a series of moving pictures seen in a short time window.