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运用1985年-2013年的相关统计数据,研究对江苏双向投资对产业结构的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,江苏产业结构的合理化与高度化与双向投资之间存在稳定的协整关系。从长期来看,OFDI对产业结构合理化的贡献更大,而IFDI对产业结构高度化的影响更为显著。从短期来看,IFDI对产业结构升级的效应更为突出,而OFDI对产业结构升级的效应存在不确定性。从动态影响来看,无论是IFDI还是OFDI都能将所受的外部冲击传递给产业结构的合理化与高度化,但两者在敏感度上存在明显差异。文章最后给出了相关的政策建议。
Using the relevant statistical data from 1985 to 2013, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of Jiangsu two-way investment on industrial structure. The results show that there is a stable cointegration relationship between the rationalization and highly industrial structure of Jiangsu Province and two-way investment. In the long run, OFDI will contribute more to the rationalization of industrial structure, while IFDI will have a more significant impact on the industrialization. In the short term, the effect of IFDI on the upgrading of industrial structure will be more prominent, while the effect of OFDI on the upgrading of industrial structure will be uncertain. From the perspective of dynamic impact, both the external shocks transmitted by IFDI and OFDI can be rationalized and highly industrialized. However, there is a clear difference in sensitivity between the two. Finally, the article gives the relevant policy recommendations.