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上半年,国际原油价格出现“倒V”型走势,其他品种国际大宗商品价格则呈现高位震荡态势,这对国内CPI的上涨形成较大压力。下半年,国际油价可能回到90-100美元/桶的区间,农产品价格可能继续走高,第三季度以后工业原材料价格将有所上涨,除农产品外其他品种对CPI的上涨压力将有所缓解。建议密切监测重点品种库存和产量变化,着力疏导储备与流通体系的薄弱环节,审慎引导企业参与大宗商品相关金融衍生品交易。
In the first half of the year, the international crude oil prices appeared “inverted V” trend. The prices of other varieties of international commodities fluctuated at a high level, putting more pressure on the rise of domestic CPI. In the second half of this year, the international oil prices may return to 90-100 US dollars / barrel range, agricultural prices may continue to rise after the third quarter of industrial raw materials prices will rise, in addition to other varieties of agricultural products on the CPI upward pressure will ease. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in the stocks and output of key varieties, to divert the weaknesses in the reserve and circulation system and to prudently guide enterprises in the trading of derivatives related to commodities.