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引入了多米诺的定义,给出事故多米诺效应定量评价的具体程序,在触发多米诺效应发生条件和发生模式的基础上,重点研究了多米诺事故热辐射叠加算法分析,利用Mapinfo设计了多米诺事故热辐射叠加分析软件以及相应的设计步骤,解决较为复杂的重大事故多米诺效应概率叠加计算问题。研究结果可以根据发生概率更加形象地动态地预测事故进一步发展的趋势,为救援指挥提供决策,对相关园区的安全管理和救援决策具有重要指导意义。
Based on the definition of domino, the specific procedure of quantitative evaluation of domino effect is given. Based on the triggering condition and mode of occurrence of domino effect, this paper focuses on the analysis of algorithm of superimposition of thermal radiation in domino accident, and designs the superposition of thermal radiation of domino accident using Mapinfo Analysis software and the corresponding design steps to solve the problem of superimposing the probability of domino effect in a more complex major accident. Based on the probability of occurrence, the research results can predict the trend of further development of the accident dynamically and provide decision-making for rescue command, which is of great guiding significance to the safety management and rescue decision-making in related parks.