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对于日本经济长期低迷的成因,学术界从不同的视角给予了解读和反思。从人口-经济长周期波动视角看,日本老龄社会的不断深化拉低了日本经济的潜在增长率,并削弱了传统需求管理手段刺激经济增长的政策效果。而由于人口惯性的作用,日本超老龄的人口年龄结构还将继续深化,人口总量和劳动力规模将持续萎缩,这必将长期影响日本经济的发展前景。我国应吸取日本的教训,尽早出台相关政策,完善政策配套,全面应对老龄社会带来的风险。
For the causes of Japan’s long-term economic downturn, academics have interpreted and reconsidered them from different perspectives. From the perspective of population-economy long-term volatility, the deepening of Japan’s aging society has lowered the potential growth rate of Japan’s economy and weakened the policy effect of traditional demand management measures to stimulate economic growth. As a result of the inertia of the population, the age structure of Japan’s ultra-elderly population will continue to deepen. Population size and labor force will continue to shrink, which will surely affect Japan’s economic development in the long run. Our country should draw lessons from Japan, introduce relevant policies as soon as possible, improve the policy package and fully respond to the risks posed by the aging society.