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针对中国地区“四化”协调发展水平展开空间统计与空间计量分析。空间自相关检验表明,历年全局Moran’s I指数均显著为正,且集中在0.4左右的高位,空间正相关明显。空间面板分析表明,空间自回归系数ρ显著为正,“四化”协调发展存在正向空间溢出。经济发展水平、经济开放程度、固定资产投资、科技、教育、卫生事业发展和节能减排等都对“四化”协调发展起到了显著的正向促进作用,金融贷款的负向影响明显,而财政支出能力、交通基础设施和社会保障水平的影响则不够明显。东、中、西部的情况各有异同。文章就此提出了相关意见建议。
In the light of the coordinated development of “Four Modernizations” in China, spatial statistics and spatial econometrics are analyzed. Spatial autocorrelation tests showed that the global Moran’s I index was significantly positive over the years, and concentrated around a high level of 0.4 with a significant positive correlation. Spatial panel analysis shows that spatial autoregressive coefficient ρ is significantly positive, and there exists positive spatial spillover in the coordinated development of “four modernizations”. The level of economic development, the degree of economic openness, the investment in fixed assets, science and technology, education, health service development and energy conservation and emission reduction all contributed significantly to the coordinated development of the “four modernizations”. The negative impact of financial loans was significant , While the impact of fiscal expenditure capacity, transport infrastructure and social security levels is not obvious enough. The situation in the east, middle and west are similar and different. The article put forward relevant opinions and suggestions.