The key problem for numerical simulation of plasma arc welding (PAW) process is to develop a suitable and adaptive volumetric heat source mode which reflects the physical characteristics of keyhole PAW. To this end, the keyhole geometry under different PAW process conditions must be predicted. In this paper, a mathematical model for determining the keyhole shape is developed with considering the mass and momentum conservation of the in-keyhole plasma jet as well as the pressure equilibrium at the plasma jet/liquid metal boundary. A suitable heat source model related to the keyhole shape is applied to the calculation of PAW weld dimensions. The predicted results are in good agreement with the experimental ones.