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2005年9月,宏观调控政策效果继续显现,大部分工业行业景气出现系统性回落。在未来的几个月,随着调控政策对工业生产抑制性作用的进一步显现,增长速度将会继续回落。随着限制景气扩张的因素逐渐增加,预计多数行业出现强劲回升的可能性极小,稳中趋降将成为未来几个月行业景气的主要走势。库存过高,行业将面临降价求售的命运,原材料和产品,尤其是产成品均存在跌价可能。库存率上升较快的行业有:煤气生产供应业、汽车、烟草、水泥、电子元器件等行业。三级行业中,铁合金冶炼、船舶制造、电子器件、纤维素纤维、合成材料、白色家电、炼钢等行业增加较快。1-8月,跟踪的39个行业中,部分行业新增生产能力较快。如电力、钢铁、有色、煤气等行业资产形成额增速在20%以上,这些行业都属于能源原材料行业,部分属于需要发展的瓶颈行业。大部分行业产能的增加处于合理水平,没有出现明显过热现象。经过2004年下半年的低谷,工程机械行业从2005年开始恢复正常增长,预计2006年一季度比2005年一季度同比将增长31%,行业将进入理性的增长通道。
In September 2005, the effect of macro-control policies continued to appear, and the economy of most industrial sectors fell systematically. In the coming months, the rate of growth will continue to drop as the inhibitory effect of regulatory policies on industrial production further manifests. With the factor of limiting the expansion of the economy gradually increasing, it is highly unlikely that the strong recovery in most industries is expected. The steady and declining trend will be the major trend of the industry in the coming months. Inventory is too high, the industry will face the fate of lower prices for sale, raw materials and products, especially the finished products are there possible price declines. Stocks rose rapidly in industries: gas production and supply, automobiles, tobacco, cement, electronic components and other industries. Three industries, ferroalloy smelting, shipbuilding, electronic devices, cellulose fibers, synthetic materials, white goods, steel and other industries increased rapidly. 1-8 months, tracking the 39 industries, some industries new production capacity faster. Such as electric power, steel, nonferrous metals, gas and other industries the amount of asset growth rate of 20% or more, these industries are all energy and raw materials industries, part of the need to develop the bottleneck industry. Most of the industry capacity increase at a reasonable level, there was no obvious overheating. After the downturn in the second half of 2004, the construction machinery industry has returned to normal growth since 2005. It is estimated that the first quarter of 2006 will grow 31% over the first quarter of 2005 and the industry will enter a rational channel of growth.