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The 7.0-magnitude earthquake that hit Ya’an City in Sichuan Province not only caused a heart-wrenching death toll， but also wreaked havoc on the region’s economy. However， experts said that the economic losses would be much less than the 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan quake， which jolted the same province five years ago.
Losses on the rise
In late March， Ya’an planned to expand the production value of its four pillar industries—hydropower， machinery manufacturing， agricultural products processing and new materials—to 37.6 billion yuan （$6.09 billion） in 2013， a surge of 15 percent from the previous year. The unexpected earthquake has now made this goal hard to achieve， as hydropower facilities， agricultural products and historic relics were severely damaged.
About 400，000 houses in Ya’an were damaged in the quake， of which 12，850 were completely flattened. There was also extensive destruction to farm resources and public infrastructure. The earthquake damaged 34 reservoirs in Sichuan， affecting the water supply of 303，000 people. A total of 48，915 families needed to be relocated， according to the local government. Twelve hydropower facilities were also damaged.
Of all the listed companies either based in， or with hefty business interests in Sichuan， 91 released initial damage reports to the market on April 22.
Tourism brought in 7.97 billion yuan （$1.29 billion） in 2012 to Ya’an’s coffers， or 20 percent of its GDP， up 25.43 percent year on year. After the earthquake， however， almost all tour groups have been suspended.
As of April 21， a total of 102 local cultural relics had been damaged after the earthquake， according to the State Administration of Cultural Heritage. The quake also damaged an additional 12 museums， affecting 274 cultural relics， according to the administration.
The Ya’an earthquake is expected to eventually be responsible for at least 42.26 billion yuan （$6.84 billion） in economic losses， the highest amount wrought by a natural disaster in recent years， according to a report by Anbound， a Beijing-based research company. Anbound made its estimation using an evaluation system with the Wenchuan earthquake as a reference.
The Ya’an earthquake occurred on the same fault line as the Wenchuan earthquake five years ago. Then， more than 87，000 people were found dead or believed to be missing. Direct economic losses in Sichuan and neighboring Gansu and Shaanxi provinces totaled 845.1 billion yuan （$134 billion）， with regional infrastructure severely damaged. Economic blow？
Experts said that China’s GDP won’t suffer greatly as Ya’an is not an industrial base， although it will impact the regional economy. “Back in 2008， the Wenchuan earthquake made a difference of 1 percentage point in national GDP growth， but the Ya’an earthquake can only make a difference of up to 0.2 percentage points，” said Fan Wei， an analyst with Hongyuan Securities， to National Business Daily.
Zhu Ning， a professor at Shanghai Jiaotong University， echoed Fan， noting that Ya’an is neither a raw material production base nor a manufacturing zone. “The quake-hit region suffered a great loss， but it has limited impact on the whole province and China. Ya’an is not the economic center of Sichuan and doesn’t account for a big proportion of the provincial GDP.”
Zhang Yuanhong， a researcher at the Rural Development Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， said that damage to its agricultural output will be limited because the mountainous area where the earthquake struck is not a leading grain production base. The views of experts were evidenced by the unshaken stock market on the first trading day after the quake on April 22. Both the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets remained largely flat， but some shares closely related to the events in Sichuan did react， particularly cement， construction materials and medical stocks.
Measures
Immediately after the shock， the central authorities， including the People’s Bank of China， the country’s central bank， the Ministry of Commerce （MOFCOM）， the China Banking Regulatory Commission （CBRC） and General Administration of Customs （GAC）， held a special conference on measures to restore financial order in the aftermath of quake-hit regions. The central bank pledged to ensure financial stability， liquidity and the timely allocation of relief money. The MOFCOM launched a contingency plan to ensure enough materials were supplied to rebuild the area. The GAC opened a green channel for inbound commodities and transportation facilities that are related to the relief work. A 24-hour window was set up for those items with simplified entry procedures. In an emergency， those items can be given customs clearance without paperwork， which can be given to the GAC afterward.
The CBRC， the country’s banking regulator， issued regulations to restore banking networks and simplify procedures for earthquake-stricken citizens to deal with any bank-related financial issues. Local banks， such as the Sichuan subsidiaries of Agricultural Bank of China and the Rural Credit Cooperative and Postal Savings Bank of China， sent out shuttle buses to victim settlement sites to deliver financial services.
A more important task is reconstruction work in the quake zone， which will receive financial support from all over China， including donations from individuals and companies and the reconstruction fund earmarked by the Central Government.
After the catastrophe， companies from all fields made donations to the district through official channels or grassroots NGOs. The total amount can hardly be calculated for now， but the early donations are telling. For instance， Samsung donated 60 million yuan （$9.71 million）； Apple Inc.， 50 million yuan （$8.1 million）； and Tencent， a leading Chinese IT company， donated 5 million yuan（$809，500）.
Zhang Yongjun， Deputy Director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， said despite the hefty donations from around the globe， after-quake reconstruction will mainly rely on government allocated fund. “It’s hard to predict the amount of investment for the reconstruction，” Zhang said.
Back in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake， there were concerns about over-investment and repetitive construction. How to coordinate the reconstruction work will be a test for the Chinese Government. “We should ensure the funds are used efficiently by formulating an overall reconstruction plan in advance and setting up a coordination system，” said Zhang.
Yu Fenghui， a renowned business commentator， said that except for money allocation， more flexible financial policies should be formulated for the region.
“Tax cuts can be a way to spur enthusiasm for private capital’s investment in the quake zone. On the one hand， the government can encourage donations to the quake zone by offering tax cuts to donors. On the other， if private businesses invest in the reconstruction in the quake zone， all taxes should be exempted，”said Yu.
Losses on the rise
In late March， Ya’an planned to expand the production value of its four pillar industries—hydropower， machinery manufacturing， agricultural products processing and new materials—to 37.6 billion yuan （$6.09 billion） in 2013， a surge of 15 percent from the previous year. The unexpected earthquake has now made this goal hard to achieve， as hydropower facilities， agricultural products and historic relics were severely damaged.
About 400，000 houses in Ya’an were damaged in the quake， of which 12，850 were completely flattened. There was also extensive destruction to farm resources and public infrastructure. The earthquake damaged 34 reservoirs in Sichuan， affecting the water supply of 303，000 people. A total of 48，915 families needed to be relocated， according to the local government. Twelve hydropower facilities were also damaged.
Of all the listed companies either based in， or with hefty business interests in Sichuan， 91 released initial damage reports to the market on April 22.
Tourism brought in 7.97 billion yuan （$1.29 billion） in 2012 to Ya’an’s coffers， or 20 percent of its GDP， up 25.43 percent year on year. After the earthquake， however， almost all tour groups have been suspended.
As of April 21， a total of 102 local cultural relics had been damaged after the earthquake， according to the State Administration of Cultural Heritage. The quake also damaged an additional 12 museums， affecting 274 cultural relics， according to the administration.
The Ya’an earthquake is expected to eventually be responsible for at least 42.26 billion yuan （$6.84 billion） in economic losses， the highest amount wrought by a natural disaster in recent years， according to a report by Anbound， a Beijing-based research company. Anbound made its estimation using an evaluation system with the Wenchuan earthquake as a reference.
The Ya’an earthquake occurred on the same fault line as the Wenchuan earthquake five years ago. Then， more than 87，000 people were found dead or believed to be missing. Direct economic losses in Sichuan and neighboring Gansu and Shaanxi provinces totaled 845.1 billion yuan （$134 billion）， with regional infrastructure severely damaged. Economic blow？
Experts said that China’s GDP won’t suffer greatly as Ya’an is not an industrial base， although it will impact the regional economy. “Back in 2008， the Wenchuan earthquake made a difference of 1 percentage point in national GDP growth， but the Ya’an earthquake can only make a difference of up to 0.2 percentage points，” said Fan Wei， an analyst with Hongyuan Securities， to National Business Daily.
Zhu Ning， a professor at Shanghai Jiaotong University， echoed Fan， noting that Ya’an is neither a raw material production base nor a manufacturing zone. “The quake-hit region suffered a great loss， but it has limited impact on the whole province and China. Ya’an is not the economic center of Sichuan and doesn’t account for a big proportion of the provincial GDP.”
Zhang Yuanhong， a researcher at the Rural Development Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， said that damage to its agricultural output will be limited because the mountainous area where the earthquake struck is not a leading grain production base. The views of experts were evidenced by the unshaken stock market on the first trading day after the quake on April 22. Both the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets remained largely flat， but some shares closely related to the events in Sichuan did react， particularly cement， construction materials and medical stocks.
Measures
Immediately after the shock， the central authorities， including the People’s Bank of China， the country’s central bank， the Ministry of Commerce （MOFCOM）， the China Banking Regulatory Commission （CBRC） and General Administration of Customs （GAC）， held a special conference on measures to restore financial order in the aftermath of quake-hit regions. The central bank pledged to ensure financial stability， liquidity and the timely allocation of relief money. The MOFCOM launched a contingency plan to ensure enough materials were supplied to rebuild the area. The GAC opened a green channel for inbound commodities and transportation facilities that are related to the relief work. A 24-hour window was set up for those items with simplified entry procedures. In an emergency， those items can be given customs clearance without paperwork， which can be given to the GAC afterward.
The CBRC， the country’s banking regulator， issued regulations to restore banking networks and simplify procedures for earthquake-stricken citizens to deal with any bank-related financial issues. Local banks， such as the Sichuan subsidiaries of Agricultural Bank of China and the Rural Credit Cooperative and Postal Savings Bank of China， sent out shuttle buses to victim settlement sites to deliver financial services.
A more important task is reconstruction work in the quake zone， which will receive financial support from all over China， including donations from individuals and companies and the reconstruction fund earmarked by the Central Government.
After the catastrophe， companies from all fields made donations to the district through official channels or grassroots NGOs. The total amount can hardly be calculated for now， but the early donations are telling. For instance， Samsung donated 60 million yuan （$9.71 million）； Apple Inc.， 50 million yuan （$8.1 million）； and Tencent， a leading Chinese IT company， donated 5 million yuan（$809，500）.
Zhang Yongjun， Deputy Director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， said despite the hefty donations from around the globe， after-quake reconstruction will mainly rely on government allocated fund. “It’s hard to predict the amount of investment for the reconstruction，” Zhang said.
Back in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake， there were concerns about over-investment and repetitive construction. How to coordinate the reconstruction work will be a test for the Chinese Government. “We should ensure the funds are used efficiently by formulating an overall reconstruction plan in advance and setting up a coordination system，” said Zhang.
Yu Fenghui， a renowned business commentator， said that except for money allocation， more flexible financial policies should be formulated for the region.
“Tax cuts can be a way to spur enthusiasm for private capital’s investment in the quake zone. On the one hand， the government can encourage donations to the quake zone by offering tax cuts to donors. On the other， if private businesses invest in the reconstruction in the quake zone， all taxes should be exempted，”said Yu.