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针对Dempster-shafer证据合成结果与直觉决策认识之间的不一致性,提出一种新的证据合成规则。从决策的具体背景入手,描述Dempster-shafer证据合成公式产生悖论的两种情况,利用证据冲突的定义分析产生悖论的原因,提出基于一致性证据冲突的证据合成公式。该公式能减低决策中“一票否决制”和“众口烁金”等模式中决策信息放大或缩小而造成的误差。实例分析和实验结果表明,新的合成公式比较符合直观和常理,并较好地解决了上述冲突证据的合成问题。
Aiming at the inconsistency between Dempster-Shafer evidence synthesis and intuition decision-making, a new rule of evidence synthesis is proposed. Starting from the concrete background of decision-making, this paper describes two cases of Paradox generated by the Dempster-Shafer evidence synthesis formula, analyzes the causes of the paradox by using the definition of evidence conflict, and proposes the evidence synthesis formula based on the consistency evidence conflict. This formula can reduce the error caused by enlargement or contraction of decision-making information in the decision-making mode such as “one-vote veto system” and “public scold fund”. The case study and experimental results show that the new synthetic formula is in line with the intuition and common sense, and the problem of the synthesis of the conflicting evidences is well solved.