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长距离热油管道输送介质的组成一般比较复杂,为维持其经济输送温度,常出现蜡等重有机物固相沉积问题。当固相沉积超过一定程度时,不仅显著增加管道系统的动力消耗,而且严重威胁其运行安全。因此,合理预测热油管道稳定运行的进站温度对保障其安全经济运行尤为重要。依据阿尔善-赛汉塔拉输油管道2008-2010年的历史运行参数,结合苏霍夫温降理论,反算全线7个管段稳定运行期间的总传热系数K,提出不同管段的月推荐K值,以此预测各管段2011年上半年的进站温度,探讨偏差产生的主要原因与预测结果的可靠性。研究结果表明:由热油管道历史运行参数反算得出的推荐K值,可以较好地预测该管道今后的温降趋势,误差在-4～4℃内的可信度高于90%,但进站温度预测值可能因固相沉积而略低于实际值。
Long-distance hot oil pipeline transportation medium composition is generally more complex, in order to maintain its economic transport temperature, often appear wax and other heavy organic solid deposition problems. When the solid phase deposition exceeds a certain extent, it not only significantly increases the power consumption of the pipeline system, but also seriously threatens its operation safety. Therefore, it is very important to predict the stop temperature for the stable operation of the hot oil pipeline reasonably to ensure its safe and economical operation. According to the historical operating parameters of Aershan-Saihan Tala oil pipeline from 2008 to 2010, combined with the Sohuoff temperature drop theory, the total heat transfer coefficient K during the steady operation of seven pipe sections was calculated, and the monthly recommended K Value, in order to predict the arrival of the first half of 2011, the station temperature, to explore the main reasons for bias and the reliability of the prediction results. The results show that the recommended K value back calculated from the historical operating parameters of the hot oil pipeline can predict the future temperature drop trend of the pipeline well, and the reliability of the pipeline is higher than 90% at -4 ~ 4 ℃ Predicted pit temperature may be slightly lower than actual due to solid phase deposition.